Wednesday, September 22, 2021

2021 Rams Recap - Week 3 - HOLY TOLEDO!

Mere hours after I depressingly rambled about searching for a victory on the remaining CSU schedule, the Rams rolled into the Glass Bowl and delivered an improbable victory against a team that went toe-to-toe with the number 8 team in the country the week prior. I guess that's why you play the games... 

While the victory was surprising, the way that the game was won was not. 

The run defense: 

The Ram front seven, the strength of the team last year, dominated the Toledo Rockets in the trenches. Toledo finished the contest with 21 yards of rushing. On 28 attempts. For an average of 0.8 yards per attempt. LESS THAN A YARD PER CARRY. That is absurd and a huge indication of how well the defensive line and linebackers played on Saturday. In their previous games this year, the Rockets rushed for 205 yards on 39 carries against Norfolk State (5.3 yards per carry) and 124 yards on 30 carries against Notre Dame (4.1 yards per carry). According to these numbers, we are over four times better than #8 Notre Dame. Math don't lie. We knew that the front seven had a chance to be really good and they proved it against the Rockets. It was the secondary that we were concerned about...

The pass defense:

Our secondary has been the Achilles heal of the defense for two seasons now. Poor positioning, bad communication, the inability for the DBs to turn their head to the ball as it comes their way. All of these flaws were setting up a blowout loss to Toledo, a team that throws the ball effectively. While Carter Bradley did not necessarily have a bad day, our secondary kept him in check. Bradley posted his worst statistical passing game of the year while still throwing for over 250 yards with a completion percentage above 60%. They just could not get into the end zone. Was the success of the secondary due to the insertion of Jack Howell into the starting lineup? Howell ended up with 9 tackles and a pass defensed as part of his MWC Freshman of the Week winning performance. A big art of the success against the passing game can be attributed to those guys up front. Six sacks. Ten tackles for a loss. Two quarterback hurries. Two forced fumbles on Bradley. He just could not get comfortable in the pocket long enough to deliver the ball downfield. Huge props to the line and linebackers for applying pressure to alleviate the concerns behind them. 

The special teams: 

One thing has been consistent this season - our punter is solid. Stonehouse put up another game of big numbers, punting 6 times with an average slightly over 52 yards per punt. The guy just does his job and does it well. The bonus special teams play was a dude that I love cheering for - Thomas Pannunzio. Pannunzio exemplifies the type of player that Sonny Lubick used to recruit, develop, and dominate with. Originally a walk-on from Pueblo South, Pannunzio was placed on scholarship last year after showing his value as a Swiss Army knife for the Rams. Pannunzio can play wide receiver, defensive back, and special teams. He has been a steady hand returning both kicks and punts. He plays with a passion and determination unmatched on the team. This week, he had his moment. Knotted at 6 with three minutes remaining in the third quarter, the Ram defense forced a punt. Pannunzio received the punt at the 30 yard line and wiggled his way downfield a special teams touchdown. Love to see those try-hard guys have success for my favorite team. 

I would be remiss if I did not mention the Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Week - Cayden Camper. After a rough start to the season, Camper came up big time in the win over the Rockets. Camper was 5 for 5 on FG with makes from 31, 42, 29, 47, and 23. His last three field goals came in the fourth quarter, icing the game for the Rams. 

The offense:

More math: 7 points for the Pannunzio punt return touchdown plus 15 points off the foot of Cayden Camper equals... all the points we got. The win came despite the offensive concerns bleeding into this game. Obviously the Rams moved the ball well enough to get into field goal range, but the same question marks arose this past weekend. The running game was healthy. David Bailey earned 132 yards on the ground. The offensive line looked more cohesive and effective this game. There was some visible improvement from the SDST and Vandy contests in that regard. 

But I have never in my life seen a game where one player (a tight end, for that matter) has accounted for 99.1% of all receiving yards and their team still won. That is what we saw with Trey McBride as he added to his NFL draft highlight reel on his way to becoming the next #NextLevelRam. McBride's 109 yards on 9 catches was a lone highlight of the passing game. 

Centeio continues to have some sort of dirt on Addazio to remain in the starting spot. Fails the eye test. Fails the film test. And the numbers don't lie. 

Declining completion percentages concern me. His lack of touch concerns me. His declining yardage concerns me. The Rams are not going to hold all their opponents to 6 points. The quarterback and receiving corps need to provide better production in order to convert Saturday's win into a successful season. What I have seen from Centeio this year and last has not convinced me that he is the answer. At what point do Addazio and Budmayr realize that the future of this program is in the hands of Evan Olaes and not Todd Centeio? 

Up next: 

#5 Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. The line opened at CSU +22. That's a big number. But so was CSU +14.5 at Toledo. 


Flick's Picks

I was not expecting CSU to win this game either before the season started or as the ball was kicked off to start the game. After weeks 1 and 2, I was not even expecting CSU to cover the 14.5 point spread. Boy howdy, was I wrong. I hope my wrongness continues throughout the remainder of the season, except against New Mexico, Utah State, and Hawaii. 

WeekOpponentPredictionResultFlick's Picks
1South Dakota StateLSDSU 42 - CSU 231 - 0
2VanderbiltWVU 24 - CSU 211 - 1
3at ToledoLCSU 22 - Tol 61 - 2
4at IowaL
5BYE--
6San Jose StateL
7at New MexicoW
8at Utah StateW
9Boise StateL
10at WyomingL
11Air ForceW
12at HawaiiW
13NevadaL

Saturday, September 18, 2021

2021 Rams Recap - Week 2 - This SECs

I spent a chunk of last Saturday watching the Rams give away their only winnable non-conference game. 

I spent a chunk of last Sunday looking for a win on the remaining schedule. 

We are in trouble, folks. 

Vanderbilt is in (arguably) the best football conference in the country. Surprisingly, they are also incredibly terrible at football and have been for years. In 2019, they were 3-9. In 2020, they were 0-9. In 2021, they lost to mediocre FCS East Tennessee State University in their opening game before heading to Fort Collins. Everything was set up for an easy victory for the Rams and the first half played right into the predicted narrative. Despite two missed field goals, CSU had a 14 point lead when a Ryan Stonehouse punt was tipped and redirected out of bounds near midfield with 1:57 left in the second quarter. The Commodores walked down the field, scored their first points to make it a 7 point deficit at the half, and changed the vibe of the entire game. 

After halftime, the Commodores made adjustments to their failing game plan. The Rams... did not. An early second half Centeio interception led to the tying Commodores score. Then they took the lead with a touchdown on their next possession. Punts were exchanged for a majority of the second half until the Rams reached desperation mode and drove the field to tie the game with a Trey McBride (still really good) touchdown on fourth down. Unfortunately, the Rams left 3:00 on the clock, which Vanderbilt used to get into field goal range, kick a 38 yard field goal, leave 0:19 for the Rams to do nothing with, and tear the hearts out of fans already beaten down and abused by their football program. 

- The Rams racked up 115 yards of penalties including two targeting calls. 

- The secondary continues to be bad - pass interference calls, blow coverages, and open receivers downfield. 

- The Rams missed two field goals in the first half. 

- Dante Wright got hurt. 

- The coaching staff continues to lean on their guys - transfers from Temple and Boston College who just are not getting it done.

- That misplaced loyalty applies to one of the most frustrating positions thus far: the quarterback play was bad. No better way to explain it than this stat: the Rams were 4 of 15 on 3rd down. 

But we should talk about the positives, right coach?

The coach is out here yelling at reporters for asking questions of a coach who has gone 1-5 in his time here, has been an average (at best) head football coach for his entire career, just lost to a team who has not won a football game in two years, and all while the landscape of college athletics is shifting while CSU's terrible football program keeps us on the outside looking in. But yeah, let's focus on the positives... 

Here is a positive, coach. Ryan Stonehouse is a goddamn beast. 

I know we are are only two games into the season but any hope for success is waning rapidly. This is a bad team being coached by a staff that I do not trust to make the improvements across the roster to change the results. I definitely do not trust the staff to make the best decision for the program by making a change at quarterback. Addazio remains ridiculously loyal to Centeio, despite his obvious shortcomings. Addazio will continue to blame the losses on injuries or suspensions or whatever deflects away from the real problem - a mediocre coach struggling to lift up a football program that has been in the dumps for years. Vivens has been the most explosive runner out of the backfield, yet carries for both Vivens and McElroy are hard to come by. The supposed strengths of the program (specifically the OL) has been porous. Our vaunted defensive front has not been able to overcome the shortcomings of the secondary. Our kicker is a liability. And our quarterback is not good enough - his limitations restrict what the offense can do and opposing defenses can feast on our scheme. We are over it. 

Back to my earlier statement: where can CSU dig up a win in the remaining schedule? My preseason post predicted four Rams victories coming over Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Utah State, and Hawaii. We just lost the first of those games and the other three do not look promising. All three remaining games are on the road. New Mexico is sick of losing to CSU and will have extra motivation to beat the dead horse that is this Addazio-helmed squad. Utah State is 2-0, including a butt-kicking of North Dakota and a three point win on the road against the Cougars of Washington State. The Aggies were a question mark coming into the season, but early returns are showing that they are not the garbage team everyone anticipated to see this season. Hawaii lost their first game to top-25 UCLA, dominated their next contest in a barn burner over Portland State, then lost to the Oregon State Beavers in Corvallis. Hawaii historically has been a pass-heavy squad, which matches well with the weak secondary unit of the Rams. We might be staring down the barrel of an 0-12 team. Would that be enough to bid adieu to Addazio? 

We continue our quest for a singular win with a trip to Ohio, to face off against the Rockets of Toledo. Toledo is no joke, having just faced off against Notre Dame in South Bend and nearly pulling the upset.  Their three point loss against a top 15 program is a good sign that the folks betting for Toledo to cover the -14.5 point are in good shape. I'd love to be proven wrong, but until then this SECs. 

Flick's Picks

I was right until the Rams decided to not win the ball game in the second half. 

WeekOpponentPredictionResultFlick's Picks
1South Dakota StateLSDSU 42 - CSU 231 - 0
2VanderbiltWVU 24 - CSU 211 - 1
3at ToledoL
4at IowaL
5BYE--
6San Jose StateL
7at New MexicoW
8at Utah StateW
9Boise StateL
10at WyomingL
11Air ForceW
12at HawaiiW
13NevadaL

Tuesday, September 07, 2021

2021 Rams Recap - Week 1 - When Being Right Feels Wrong

Uff da. For those of you who do not hail from the Midwest, that's basically a Scandinavian way of saying "oy vey". And uff da is pretty much the only way I can describe what I witnessed on Friday night in Fort Collins. 

Courtesy of the Associated Press

Just this past week, I predicted that the Rams would lose to FCS South Dakota State. Well guess what? I was right. But man, I was expecting a back-and-forth battle between the two teams with CSU ultimately failing to overcome the Jackrabbits attack. I was NOT expecting the actual butt-kicking that occurred at Canvas Stadium. 

South Dakota State is a good FCS program - they are just months removed from a FCS Championship Game appearance. But they dominated the trenches and that was the difference in the game. That fact is what drives me mad about this Colorado State team. Steve Addazio is lauded as an offensive line guru. Yet our offensive line could not control the line of scrimmage, could not open up running lanes, and could not create a pocket from which Todd Centeio could comfortably get the ball downfield. Offensive line issues are common early in the college football season, but this isn't a new group of guys learning to play alongside each other. The line is the same group of dudes that played together last year. Where is the improvement? The Ram running backs were consistently getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. Any semblance of a hole collapsed on the runners bursting through it. The Rams averaged 3.1 yards per rushing attempt for the game. Three yards per carry. Atrocious. The leading rusher for the Rams, David Bailey, had 19 rushing attempts for 46 yards. Marcus McElroy and A'Jon Vivens only had 5 rushing attempts combined. On the passing front, Centeio was under duress for the entire game and often had to use his legs to escape the immediate pressure. When he did have enough time to set his feet, his throws were zipped to receivers close to the line or they sailed over their heads downfield. Early in the first quarter, he overthrew a wide open Dante Wright for what should have been the opening score. It was the first of two throws that completely missed receivers that could have walked into the end zone. While the stats show some equality (time of possession, drives, and total yards are nearly identical between the two teams), the stats do not fully tell the story of the game. CSU was outclassed when they had the ball. 

The defense was not much better. Last year, CSU games were kept close due to the exceptional play of our defensive line unit. Again, SDSU dominated the line of scrimmage and the Rams could not contain Chris Oladokun. Even when they did manage to create pressure on the quarterback, they could not drop him for a loss. Part of the reason for that is the big question mark coming into the season - the Ram's secondary. The secondary was already behind the 8-ball with the injury to projected starter Linwood Crump, a transfer from Temple. He was expected to start opposite Rashad Ajayi to help solidify that young unit. His injury shortened up an already short bench and it showed against the Jackrabbits. The SDSU receivers spent most of the day roaming freely on the CSU side of the ball. Even when pressure was applied, Oladokun was able to find someone with some space to advance the ball downfield. Miscommunication, blown coverages, and an absence of backfield pressure were the themes of the game. Frustration level - [100 emoji]. 

Courtesy of the Denver Post

All in all, Friday's game was a tough pill to swallow. I did not have high expectations for this team - I predicted them to go 4-8, after all. But I expected to see some progression from a team that had a full offseason to prepare after the COVID infested trial run last year. The play calling from Jon Budmayr was not "explosive and exciting" as promised by Addazio prior to the game. Tough to do that when your offensive line looks like a high school squad. The secondary's inability to cover opposing wide receivers will be exposed even more against aerial attacks like San Jose State and Toledo. 

As an eternal optimist, I am not quite ready to write off this team. However, the issues that we saw are ones that losing football teams have: inability to control the line of scrimmage, consistently finding your offense in 3rd and long situations, consistently giving up big plays when your defense forces a 3rd and long, communication breakdowns in coverage, failing to execute explosive plays. Those are major flaws in a football program that has been overrun with flaws for nearly a decade. It's inexcusable and the timing could not be worse. The second major conference realignment started this summer and CSU is perfectly poised for an invitation to a Power 5 conference - state of the art facilities, basketball programs just starting their ascension into the national conversation, a perennial volleyball tournament team, nationally ranked track and cross country programs, pending upgrades to the softball and soccer facilities, a top tier land grant research institution located on a gorgeous plot of land in a beautiful state where people want to live. The one box that does not get checked just so happens to be the one that matters more than all the others (thanks television contracts) - our football team sucks. And because our football program is mired in the mud, no invite will come and CSU will be on the outside looking in yet again. The alumni and Fort Collins deserve better than that. 

I will leave you with some positives in an attempt to cleanse the palate prior to Saturday's late night matchup with the Commodores from Vanderbilt: 
  • Trey McBride is the real freaking deal. One week in and he showed why draft pundits are high on his future at the next level. Trey was the best Ram on the field, grabbing 13 catches for 116 yards, dragging Jackrabbits for yards after each catch. McBride has that edge that you need to be successful at a high level - throughout the game, you could see how much his persistent effort was agitating the SDSU defense. While they did not appreciate McBride's tenacious play through the whistle, those of us watching from the stands certainly did. 
Courtesy of the Coloradoan
  • Dante Wright can and will be a weapon for CSU this year. Wright's day was a bit quieter than McBride's (6 receptions for 103 yards), but he spent a considerable amount of the evening open in the Jackrabbit secondary. Wright's speed is tough to defend, unless the quarterback overthrows him as he is walking into the end zone by himself. 
Courtesy of the Denver Post
  • Ryan Stonehouse can boot the damn ball. His first punt looked like it sliced off the side of his foot and it still went for 40 yards. His second punt was a thing of beauty. I won't describe it. Just watch... 
  • Vanderbilt is baaaaaaaaad. Like really bad. CSU lost to a powerhouse FCS team that just lost the national championship game. Vanderbilt lost to Eastern Tennessee State University. Without looking it up - what is the mascot for ETSU? If you knew it, stop lying. (They are the Buccaneers.) Not only did they lose to an average FCS team, they were unable to score a touchdown against the vaunted Buccaneers defense. CSU opened as 6.5 point favorites. Let's hope they fix some stuff before Saturday night comes around. 

Flick's Picks

Being right feels so dang wrong. But, prove me right again this week, Rams. 

WeekOpponentPredictionResultFlick's Picks
1South Dakota StateLSDSU 42 - CSU 231 - 0
2VanderbiltW
3at ToledoL
4at IowaL
5BYE--
6San Jose StateL
7at New MexicoW
8at Utah StateW
9Boise StateL
10at WyomingL
11Air ForceW
12at HawaiiW
13NevadaL