You Play to Win the Game (Part IV)

Let's recap the recent history of CSU football: 

• Trend upward
• Lose head coach to SEC
• Hire former SEC coordinator
• Gradual decline under former SEC coordinator
• Former SEC coordinator gets fired and becomes SEC coordinator again
• Hire head coach from ACC
• COVID
• Sadness

And that's where we are at. Sadness. Last year, the Rams were able to get in four total games, compiling a 1-3 record under first-year head coach Steve Addazio. Between COVID and that truncated schedule, it is hard to evaluate the program heading into the full 2021 season. 

What We Know

Very little. 

• The positions of strength from last year, specifically defensive line and tight end, should continue to be strengths. Toby McBride, Scott Patchan, and Manny Jones lead a group of defensive lineman who were the best position group for CSU in 2020. Trey McBride and a healthy Cam Butler provide an incredibly dangerous 1-2 punch at the TE position. 
• Dante Wright is back. I worry that the lack of depth at WR could become a problem. EJ Scott and former QB Justice McCoy need to step up so defenses don't key in on Wright. 
• DeQuan Jackson returns to lead the linebacker unit after a standout shortened season in 2020. 
• CSU continues to have one of the best punters in the country in Ryan Stonehouse. Unfortunately, the punt coverage team has been horrible to go along with it. 
• The coaching staff remained relatively intact, with the major exceptions being new offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach.
• Offensive coordinator Jon Budmayr comes to Fort Collins after six years in Madison at the University of Wisconsin. His last three were as quarterbacks coach of the Badgers. Budmayr steps into the role vacated by Joey Lynch when he departed to be the pass game coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Vanderbilt - a team that plays CSU this season. 
• Wide receiver coach Alex Bailey replaces Kenny Guiton, who left to take the same role at the University of Arkansas. Bailey held the same position at Ball State before joining the Rams. 

What We Don't Know

Damn near everything else. 

• Was Todd Centeio's performance last year truly impacted by an injury (as divulged this summer)? Should we be expecting a better and more consistent season from him this year? 
• If Centeio gets hurt or is not productive, is true freshman Evan Olaes ready for college football? 
• Will Jon Budmayr provide something more explosive and exciting than what we saw from Joey Lynch? 
• Will the offensive line play up to the expectations of an Addazio-led team? 
• Will the addition of running back David Bailey from Boston College improve the production out of the backfield? 
• Will the young secondary (with the exception of senior Rashad Ajayi) make a leap from the disaster we witnessed last year? 
• Will the special teams be an absolute dumpster fire again? In four games, the 2020 Rams gave up touchdowns on two blocked punt returns, a blocked field goal return, a kickoff return, and a punt return. That is... um... bad. At least CSU hired a full-time special teams coach this offseason. [Whispers from off screen] Oh, they did NOT hire a full-time special teams coach this offseason. Okay then. 

Super Quick Game By Game Breakdown

South Dakota State

The Jackrabbits are 4 months removed from a FCS championship game loss to Sam Houston State. They have been a class FCS team for years now and pose a giant threat to the Rams. I hope my negativity is countered with a solid game from Addazio's squad, but I see this game being a close one won by the team with more experience winning in the last few years. 

Vanderbilt

For the second time in the short Canvas Stadium history, an SEC team will visit Fort Collins. The early odds on this game have CSU as a heavy favorite against the bottom of the Southeastern Conference. This is a winnable game against a bad opponent at home. 

at Toledo

Remember what Toledo did to CSU in Fort Collins in 2019? The Rockets scored three touchdowns in the third quarter to outpace our beloved Rams at home. Granted - that was a Mike Bobo coached team and that was two seasons ago, but going to Ohio to play a team with a recent history of scoring a lot of points with a young and shaky secondary doesn't seem like a recipe for success. 

at Iowa

If you are headed to Kinnick Stadium, enjoy waving to the kids in the adjacent hospital. It might be the best part of the day for Rams fans. 

San Jose State

The Spartans had a dramatic resurgence in 2020 after years and years of cellar dwelling in the Mountain West Conference. The reigning MWC champions are projected to compete with Nevada for the West Division and MWC titles. Even at home, this will be a difficult game for the Rams to win. 

at New Mexico

I was childless when CSU last lost to New Mexico. The end of the ten game winning streak could be this year, with an improving Lobos team under the guidance of Danny Gonzales. I think the Rams will have enough grit to extend this win streak to 11 games. 

at Utah State

Remember when Utah State was challenging Boise State for the Mountain Division title? This program has completely fallen off a cliff with most college football analysts and prognosticators expecting the Aggies to finish in last place in the division. The Rams need to take advantage of two straight games against lower-tier MWC teams. 

Boise State

The Rams led the Broncos 52-38 with 3:00 left in the 4th quarter in 2017. The Rams lost that game 59-52 in overtime. That was the best chance CSU has ever had to defeat the Broncos. Until the Rams win one, I will always pick Boise to win a football game between these schools. 

at Wyoming

The recently refurbished Bronze Boot currently resides in the correct location - Fort Collins, Colorado. The Wyoming game last season was the bright spot of the season last year and I loved seeing the green team running across the field to grab the trophy. I do not think the Rams hold the trophy for another year. 

Air Force

This game is tailor made for a Ram victory - Steve Addazio is known for leading teams with strong line play. CSU's big uglies on both sides of the ball should be able to handle the smaller fronts of the Academy, but history has shown us that the Rams always struggle with the airmen. Add in our inability to cover anyone and Air Force's uncommon yet predictable pair of 80 yard touchdown passes and we will be losing yet another game at Canvas. 

at Hawaii

Another game that we have to win. Hawaii currently is not letting spectators into their events, so the light crowds at Aloha Stadium will not be a factor. 

Nevada

The Wolfpack is expected to win the West Division and challenge Boise State for the overall MWC championship. They will most likely be coming to Fort Collins with postseason aspirations. The Rams get run in the final week of the season. 

Flick's Picks

Tally up the W's and L's and you are looking at a Ram team sitting at 4-8 at the end of the year. Wins in two games against the Jackrabbits, Cowboys, and Falcons would get them to a .500 record and bowl eligibility. 

Honestly, I'm just excited for two things: playing more than four games and physically going to games with my homies. 

Week	Opponent	Prediction	Result	Flick's Picks
1	South Dakota State	L
2	Vanderbilt	W
3	at Toledo	L
4	at Iowa	L
5	BYE	--
6	San Jose State	L
7	at New Mexico	W
8	at Utah State	W
9	Boise State	L
10	at Wyoming	L
11	Air Force	L
12	at Hawaii	W
13	Nevada	L

2020 Rams Recap - Week 7 - WHAT'S THIS? WHAT'S THIS?

The One In Which I Turn On My Television and Football Appears

What's this? What's this?
There's Rammies everywhere
What's this?
There's footballs in the air
What's this?

I can't believe my eyes
I must be dreaming
Wake up, Jack, this isn't fair
What's this?

- Jack Skellington, presumably, upon turning on CBS Sports Network around 5:00 last Saturday

Real Live Football

Let me begin by stating that watching the Rams lose is still better than their games getting cancelled. It truly is. For several hours on Saturday, I was engrossed in an on-field battle, questioning decisions, cheering for McElroy touchdown runs, explaining penalties to my kids, yelling about missed holding calls, and watching an actual CSU football game. It was glorious. 

The first quarter was dominated by the defenses, with only a single SDSU touchdown on the scoreboard. The second quarter was a whirlwind of scoring, highlighted by TWO MORE special teams touchdowns for the opposition. After kicking a 43 yard field goal to make it 7-3 early in the second quarter, Jordan Byrd returned the ensuing kickoff 93 yards for a touchdown. CSU gets the ball back, goes three and out, then fails to cover BJ Busbee as he sprints 90 yards to make it 20-3 Aztecs (SDSU missed the PAT, if you are wondering how that math works). That's the story of the game. A string of five plays pushed the score from a 4 point deficit to a 17 point deficit and the Rams were in catch-up mode the rest of the game. The good news is that they responded. Two touchdowns from Marcus McElroy (including a 37 yard run where he bounced some defenders) and the Rams were within one score at halftime. 

The second half was about defensive adjustments and no team scored in the third quarter. A couple of Aztec field goals in the fourth padded their lead. 

This season was going to be a big question mark, regardless of COVID sucking the life out of it. We had a new coaching staff coming in to right the wrongs of the previous five years - this was a season of growing pains. In those seasons, the best idea is to look for indicators that improvement is happening. Saturday's game gave us several key glimpses of what to expect from the Rams moving forward: 

• This team plays hard for Steve Addazio and his staff. Despite the special teams gaffes, this team never shows signs of letting up or resigning to defeat. They scrape and claw the entire game.

• Chuck Heater's defense has been a bright spot this year. The defensive line and linebackers have been disciplined in their run coverage and tenacious getting to the quarterback. The Rams are generating tackles for losses at a rate we have not seen in Fort Collins since the Sonny days. The secondary remains a concern as teams tend to find open receivers for big plays, but they looked better this past weekend. Hopefully that continues to improve. 

Chuck Heater - Courtesy of CSURams.com

• I was excited about the Joey Lynch hiring. His last year at Ball State produced an efficient, balanced, and exciting offense. We haven't seen that at all this year. The frequency of run-run-incomplete pass-punt sequences is too high. The run game on 2nd and long has been atrocious (which further confounds me about the play calling). Understandably, the offense succeeds when Dante Wright and Trey McBride are featured in it. However, the offense tends to focus on just those two and neglects the fully-capable Nate Craig-Myers, EJ Scott, and others. 

Joey Lynch - Courtesy of The Coloradoan

• Building off the offensive concerns - the use of Todd Centeio has been baffling. His surprise start in the first game should have been a sign of QB woes to come. While Patrick O'Brien has not been stellar, he provides the best passing option for the team. I thought that Lynch and company had figured out how to balance the two quarterbacks until Centeio closed out the game down two scores with time ticking away. At that juncture, you need your best passer in the game and that should have been O'Brien. Centeio should be used as a change-of-pace read-option quarterback when a spark or change is needed. Not for long stretches and definitely not to close out a game when we are behind. 

• CSU has given up five (@&@#%@#*%#$^) special teams touchdowns in the last two games. Two blocked punts and a blocked field goal against Boise. A punt return and a kickoff return against San Diego State. Would you care to guess which phase of football does not have a dedicated coordinator on the Steve Addazio staff? Yeah, Addazio needs to hire a special teams coach immediately. The two special teams TDs for SDSU was the difference in the game. 

Upcoming: Utah State - The Final Game

Utah State is horrible this year. This is a winnable game at home against the lesser Aggies. In fact, one win CSU is a DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITE. Analyzing the common opponents, the Aggies were throttled by Boise State (as were we), throttled by SDSU (we played the Aztecs hard), and thumped by Fresno State (same here). Their only win on the year is to New Mexico - a team who only has one win of their own against Wyoming - a team we beat to regain the Bronze Boot for a year. Did I mention that we beat Wyoming and that the Bronze Boot is sitting in Fort Collins right now? 

Courtesy of Patrick O'Brien on Twitter

Of course, I expect the game to be cancelled due to COVID within hours of this post hitting the interwebs. Go the Rams. 

Week	Opponent	Prediction	Result	Flick's Picks
1	New Mexico	W	COVID	0 - 0
2	at Fresno State	W	CSU 17 - FSU 38	0 - 1
3	Wyoming	L	UW 24 - CSU 34	0 - 2
4	at Boise State	L	BSU 52 - CSU 21	1 - 2
5	UNLV	W	COVID	1 - 2
6	at Air Force	L	COVID	1 - 2
7	at San Diego State	L	CSU 17 - SDSU 29	2 - 2
8	Utah State	L

2020 Rams Recap - Week 6 - COVID Means Cancelled

 

COVID Picks Up Second Third Victory Over the Rams

Thanksgiving - a time for food, family, and football. I ate well. I talked to my extended family on Zoom. And the CSU game was cancelled yet again for COVID. This time, the CSU President and Larimer County cancelled the game due to rising COVID numbers in the area and within the football program. The team was hours away from heading to Colorado Springs on Wednesday when the news broke that the game was no longer on the table. There was no joy in Mudville, for mighty Casey had struck out. 

Upcoming: San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs had an interesting road this weekend as well, although their path resulted in a game being played three states to the east. SDSU was scheduled to host Fresno State, but Fresno was unable to travel due to their own set of COVID cases. Instead, San Diego State travelled to our home state to take on the Buffaloons from Boulder (the Pac-12 requires any make-up games to be held at Pac-12 stadiums). After going down 14 points early, the Aztecs scored 10 before halftime to make it a four point game. That was as close as it got as the Boulderites added a couple field goals to make it a double-digit victory. San Diego State returns home to finish up their unofficial state of Colorado home and home series as they host my Rammies on Saturday. Most likely, the Rams will be unable to travel due to COVID complications and another game will be off the schedule. Next highest probability is the Rams traveling to southern California only to get beat by the home squad. There is a slight chance that the Rams are able to travel and come home with a victory. We always do play SDSU better on the road in good weather. Our struggles against them seem to always come at home in the cold and snow of Colorado. Go figure. But as of now, the game is on and we hope that a CSU football game can finally grace our television screens this weekend. 

Regardless, this season is matching 2020 in every way shape and form: disappointment and cancellations. The good news is that the Bronze Boot resides in Fort Collins and NOTHING can take that away from us. Go Rams, I guess? 

Week	Opponent	Prediction	Result	Flick's Picks
1	New Mexico	W	COVID	0 - 0
2	at Fresno State	W	CSU 17 - FSU 38	0 - 1
3	Wyoming	L	UW 24 - CSU 34	0 - 2
4	at Boise State	L	BSU 52 - CSU 21	1 - 2
5	UNLV	W	COVID	1 - 2
6	at Air Force	L	COVID	1 - 2
7	at San Diego State	L
8	Utah State	L

2020 Ram Recap - Week 5 - The One In Which COVID Steals a Winnable Game

COVID Picks Up Second Victory Over the Rams

What do the University of New Mexico and UNLV have in common besides having terrible football teams? COVID football cancellations! Yet another winnable game struck from the schedule due to this stupid pandemic. Go State. 

The events that transpired last week were weird and 100% in line with 2020 proceedings. There was a report that the game was cancelled, followed by an Addazio press conference where he said the game was on as far as he knew, followed by conflicting reports about the game status, followed by the Mountain West Conference finally announcing that the game was cancelled. Uncertainty? Chaos? Confusion? COVID? Must be a 2020 Ram football game against a team we can actually beat. 

Upcoming: The United States (Ch)Air Force Academy

Thanksgiving may not feel the same this year as we are bunkering down and staying home, but at least we have football to look forward to! And not of the NFL variety. I'm sure I will watch that too, but the Rams play those pesky Zoomers from Colorado Springs at noon. Air Force is one of those teams that should thrive under these weird COVID restrictions - the football team is used to a regulated and regimented schedule. Air Force is also a team that tends to control games against the Rams (especially in recent history) using their annoying triple option before their quarterback goes 3-3 for 140 yards and 3 TDs. The Falcons are 2-2 on the year with massive wins against Navy (bad) and New Mexico (bad) and losses against Boise State (good) and San Jose State (good?!!). 

The secret to beating Air Force this year (and every year) is disciplined play along the defensive front. Teams that stay disciplined and tackle well can beat the Falcons. Teams that get out of their lanes and charge too far upfield get shredded by this old school offensive scheme. The good news? CSU's defensive front has been the strength of this team this season. The struggle has come from the back end - the secondary. Strength versus strength bodes well for this Ram team, but I worry that Air Force has just enough of a passing attack to exploit that struggling secondary. Again - the receivers from Air Force are not the same caliber as the ones from Boise State (or Fresno State for that matter), so we should be able to defend this team assuming the quality play from the front seven remains. 

But can we score? One of the major frustrations with the Mike Bobo squads was their inability to win the line of scrimmage. Steve Addazio's teams are known for their grit and fire, especially along the offensive lines. Air Force's defensive front is always going to be smaller than CSU's o-line. The Rams win this game if Addazio's line plays the way Addazio wants them to play - aggressive, mean, and downhill. Open running lanes mean defensive players creeping toward the line, which means more room for Trey McBride, Dante Wright, EJ Scott, and Nate Craig-Myers to roam free.

Plus, do we really think anyone on Air Force can guard DanTrey? No, they cannot. 

Courtesy of SportsBookReview.com

Although I predicted a Ram loss at the beginning of the season, I've talked myself into a Ram victory. Those pompous cadets need to get a beatdown at the hands of my Rams. Go Rams!! 

Week	Opponent	Prediction	Result	Flick's Picks
1	New Mexico	W	COVID	0 - 0
2	at Fresno State	W	CSU 17 - FSU 38	0 - 1
3	Wyoming	L	UW 24 - CSU 34	0 - 2
4	at Boise State	L	BSU 52 - CSU 21	1 - 2
5	UNLV	W	COVID	1 - 2
6	at Air Force	L
7	at San Diego State	L
8	Utah State	L